JUST IN: IMF raises Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.4%
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for 2026 to 4.4 percent from its earlier projection of 4.2 percent.
The revised outlook was published in the IMF’s January 2026 update of the World Economic Outlook and unveiled on Monday at the report’s official launch.
The fund said the adjustment reflects growing optimism about Nigeria’s medium-term prospects as reforms, improved fiscal coordination and macroeconomic stability begin to gain traction.
The IMF said Nigeria’s economy is now expected to expand by 4.4 percent in 2026, compared with the 4.2 percent forecast issued in October 2025.
The fund made no significant changes to its near-term outlook, indicating that the upgrade is driven largely by expectations beyond the immediate horizon.
In sub-Saharan Africa, the IMF revised regional growth upward to 4.1 percent for 2025 and 4.4 percent for 2026, pointing to a broadly shared recovery across the region.
The IMF also slightly raised South Africa’s growth outlook to 1.3 percent for 2025 and 1.4 percent for 2026.
The fund said Nigeria’s improved outlook aligns with gradual economic strengthening across the region rather than an isolated revision.
In its October 2025 World Economic Outlook, the IMF had projected Nigeria’s 2026 growth at 4.2 percent amid concerns over inflation, fiscal pressures and structural constraints.
The IMF said continued reforms aimed at restoring macroeconomic balance and improving productivity have begun to show stronger medium-term payoffs.
The fund noted that an improved growth outlook could boost investor confidence, support revenue mobilisation and strengthen debt sustainability.
The IMF added that sustained growth remains critical to easing cost-of-living pressures and improving employment prospects for households.
Globally, the IMF projects growth of 3.3 percent in 2026 and 3.2 percent in 2027, broadly in line with its estimate for 2025.
The fund said global inflation is expected to ease further, declining from 4.1 percent in 2025 to 3.8 percent in 2026 and 3.4 percent in 2027.
