Southern opposition candidate can’t defeat Tinubu in 2027, says Atiku camp

The camp of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, has declared that an opposition candidate from southern Nigeria cannot realistically defeat President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 election.

In a statement issued on Monday, Olusola Sanni, media aide to Atiku, warned opposition parties against zoning their presidential ticket exclusively to the south.

Sanni said while the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) might retain its southern presidential configuration around Tinubu, it would be politically unwise for the opposition to adopt the same approach.

The Atiku camp argued that politics should be guided by strategy and coalition-building rather than sentiment.

Part of the statement read: “The first and most obvious question is this: how does a Southern opposition candidate realistically unseat a sitting Southern president? Nigerian political history offers no precedent for such an outcome.

“No incumbent president has ever been defeated by an opposition challenger from the same geopolitical bloc. To insist otherwise is to enter the contest already defeated.

“By 2027, the South would have held presidential power for approximately 18 years in the Fourth Republic, compared to about 10 years for the North. If the South retains power for another four years, that disparity widens even further.

“It therefore becomes difficult to understand the justice in an argument that seeks to deepen an already existing imbalance under the guise of equity.

“It is intellectually dishonest for those who enthusiastically supported a Southern presidency under Goodluck Jonathan in 2011, despite the North’s legitimate expectation under the informal zoning arrangement, to now suddenly posture as custodians of rotational justice. Principles do not become sacred only when they align with personal ambition.”

While acknowledging the aspiration of the South-East to produce a president, Sanni said the demand should not be reduced to political bargaining.

“The South-East deserves a sustainable and credible pathway to national leadership, not symbolic tokenism or bespoke arrangements tailored to satisfy one individual’s ambition,” he said.

The former Vice-President’s camp urged opposition parties to focus on building a broad national coalition capable of defeating the incumbent administration.

“Defeating an incumbent president requires realism, not romanticism; strategy, not sentiment; honesty, not selective memory.

“The opposition must decide whether its goal is to make an emotional statement or to actually win power,” he added.