2020: How The Political Atmosphere Would Likely Be This Year

2020 promises to be a year full of intrigues, and as always the political scene won’t be left out in this.

Throughout 2019, the general elections conducted at the beginning of the year stole headlines, the outcome completely going the bookmakers way.

Aside some political upheavals later after the elections, much of the national issues arose due to the outcome of it. The early conduct of the 2019 polls gave the opposing Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, ample time to lick it’s wounds on the loss at the poll, till the end of the year.

The ruling All Progressive Congress, APC, meanwhile under the same time span consolidated on it’s presidential election victory by winnig massively in Kogi and Bayelsa; with the victory at Bayelsa coming as a shock to onlookers.

The new year 2020 wouldn’t lodge any general election, however new and developing issues would certainly emerge. The political trajectory in the country isn’t difficult to pickout by any neutral who has been following activities by political bigwits. Happenings that would likely come to realization in the new year are as follows:

President Buhari Would Still Shy Away From His Promises

The economic realities would again popup this new year. Before his election in 2015, one inwhich an incumbent president was first defeated in the country, Buhari and his well wishers campaigned on the premise of delivering an annual economic growth of about 10 percent up from 7 percent.

However, growth rate from 2015 onwards slipped, averaging 1.9% yearly. By early 2019, growth rate improved to 2% but experts claim a rate of about 3.5% or more need to be attained for any noticeable improvement to be achieved. This they say is because of the swift rise in population.

It was under the current administration that the country was rightly labelled as the entity with the largest number of extreme poor.

The narratives might likely not change coming into 2020, as bulk of the country’s budget is spent on recurrent expenditures rather than on capital projects.

The president’s new year speech to Nigerians likewise affirms to how unlikely new multi-million dollar projects would be funded by his government.

A little away from the economy, President Buhari’s honeymoon tales of delivering 24 hours electricity, prioritized security of lives & properties and consequent decimating of the Boko haram insurgents are few of his promises which have not come to fruition.

These promises are always going to be assured once again in 2020 but none would entirely be done.

The ‘Responsible’ Cabals Would Still Tread On Aisha’s Path

Amid the buildup to the presidential poll, the presidency had dismissed the existence of cabals, calling it an ‘imaginary creation attached to all past governments of the country.’

It also reproached the people’s Democratic Party, PDP for using such as it’s campaign issue.

The President’s wife is known to be unrelenting in speaking on issues arising around the country and even inside the state house.

This earned her the courtesy of being reminded she belonged to the ‘other room’ by her husband during the latter’s first term.

Aisha Buhari with daughter, Zara
Aisha Buhari with daughter, Zara

Aside congratulating her hubby on delivering on his mandate to Nigerians, The First Lady had accused cabals in the government house of hampering the needed development required of by the populace.

From vowing not to campaign for her husband’s re-election to accusing the Senior Special Adviser on media and publicity, Garba Shehu of loyalty to these cabals rather than to the first family, Aisha’s battle against the cabals in 2019 only clocked new gears.

From all perspective, 2020 seem a more likely year for the cabals to continue their in-house activities.

If what the first lady said of the cabals is true, then decisions concerning the buildup to the 2023 polls would be by them. Remember Shehu said they were responsible Nigerians who have the interest of the country at heart?

Osinbajo’s Moves Would Still Be Strictly Monitored

Vice president, Yemi Osibanjo might have had his best spells in Aso rock when the duties of president was handed him in 2017.

During President Buhari’s medical trip abroad, the 104 days the professor took charge might have being so prolific; possible of eclipsing the president or possibly ruining the chances of ‘cabals’ who might show interest in 2023.

Signs the VP stepped on toes became evident when he wasn’t delegated to occupy the presidential seat while President Buhari went on a medical leave this year. Adding to that, the president’s chief of staff, Abba Kyari, was deemed fit to fly to the president a bill for the latter to sign.

Vice President Yemi Osinbajo
Vice President Yemi Osinbajo

Osinbajo’s travails appealed public sympathy when in September a presidential directive requiring the VP to seek the approval of President Buhari before taking any major decisions concerning all the agencies under his watch was issued.

The Vice President watches over the National Boundary Commission; the National Economic Council (mandated by law); the National Emergency Management Agency; the Border Communities Development Agency; and the Niger Delta Power Holding Company.

The purported memo which contains the directive is yet to get to the public but major dailies have indicated it contains that an ‘abuse of due’ process in the management of some responsibilities during the first term, was the reason Buhari issued the directive. Many have argued that the ‘abuse of due process’ while on his cameo role as President included the confirmation of Justice Walter Onnoghen as the Chief Justice of Nigeria and the sacking of Lawal Daura as the Director- General of the Department of State Services.

These they say didn’t go down well with the cabals who were opposed to the influence he was gathering.

The last major presidential decision to affect the VP in 2019 was the sacking of at least 35 of his aides on the grounds of reducing cost of governance.

Edging close to 2023, the decision makers at the state house would still need the Vice Presdident to lay down his influence.

Tinubu Wouldn’t Still Make Plain His 2023 Ambitions; His Grand Sheme Would However Unfolds

Many would argue into the night of the minimal chances of Bola Tinubu at the polls if ever he would show interest to contest in 2023.

It is as crystal clear as ever that Tinubu wouldn’t envisage being a National leader of one of hundreds of political parties in Nigeria forever.

It should not be forgotten easily of how he threw the VP slot to Prof Yemi Osinbajo; reasoning the slim chances of the APC if it presented a muslim – muslim candidate in 2015. This was when it became apparent he was to be the running mate to Muhammadu Buhari then.

The controversial leader widely considered the most successful political statesman onward from 1999, has designated influence to many, making appendages to himself.

Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu, APC's national leader
Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu, APC’s national leader

With Nigeria’s commercial hub, Lagos state held sway under his hold, a party chairman, a vice president, governors, and senators were made while opposing politicians disloyal to him were quickly blotted out of political relevance.

The ‘Jagaban’ would be aged 70 by 2023 but he wouldn’t be as old as President Buhari currently is, then when he finally declares to contest.

Political experiences suggests that his bourdilion bridled aides are instinctively playing to instructions waiting for the right moment to wade in. 2020 would further uncover more about the intent of Tinubu’s 2023 plot, as his activities throughout the year would bud evidences.

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