2027: Tinubu Leads Obi, Atiku in Oxford-Metro Poll

President Bola Tinubu emerged victorious over Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar in the latest Oxford-Metro Analytics National Trust Poll conducted ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

The poll, which closed on September 7, recorded 69,110 approved and unflagged responses in its final analytical dataset.

Tinubu secured 24,469 responses, representing 35.41 per cent of the total, while Obi followed closely with 23,402 responses, representing 33.86 per cent.

Former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar came third with 18,430 responses, accounting for 26.67 per cent of the total participation.

The figures put Tinubu 1,067 responses ahead of Obi, representing a margin of about 1.54 percentage points between the two leading contenders.

The geographical spread of the poll, however, presented a different picture from the results of the 2023 presidential election, with Tinubu recording strong performances in several states outside his traditional political base.

According to the poll, Tinubu led in 20 states and the Federal Capital Territory, while Obi and Atiku recorded the highest number of responses in eight states each.

Tinubu’s reported gains included several northern states that supported Atiku in the 2023 election. He led in Kaduna, Katsina and Gombe, while he also recorded the highest number of responses in Kano, where Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) won the presidential vote in 2023.

At the geopolitical-zone level, Tinubu led in the South-West, North-West and North-Central regions.

Obi maintained a strong position in the South-East and South-South, while Atiku emerged ahead in the North-East.

In the South-West, Tinubu obtained 10,968 responses, representing 43.53 per cent of participation in the zone. He also led in the North-West with 4,129 responses, representing 43.10 per cent.

The President recorded 6,370 responses in the North-Central, giving him 36.97 per cent of the total responses from the region.

Obi’s strongest showing came from the South-East, where he received 5,796 responses, representing 63.97 per cent of participation. He also led in the South-South with 2,389 responses, representing 41.48 per cent.

Atiku’s strongest regional performance was in the North-East, where he received 1,235 responses, accounting for 55.46 per cent of the zone’s total.

Despite Tinubu’s wider spread across the regions, the national figures showed a relatively close contest between him and Obi. The difference of 1,067 responses highlights the narrow gap separating the two leading candidates in the poll.

Some state-level results were even closer. In Kogi State, for instance, Tinubu recorded 39 responses, compared with Atiku’s 38 and Obi’s 33, from a total of just 110 responses.

The poll also showed a close contest in the Federal Capital Territory, where Tinubu received 5,599 responses against Obi’s 5,278, while Atiku polled 3,954.

In Rivers State, Tinubu had 975 responses, Obi 892 and Atiku 568, giving the President an 83-response advantage over Obi.

Other candidates also featured in the poll, although their figures were considerably lower. Omoyele Sowore received 1,016 responses, followed by Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde with 519 and former President Goodluck Jonathan with 284.

Anita Zugwai-Chukwu received 18 responses, Sandy Onor had six, while Prince Kennedy Ahanotu recorded two.

A total of 638 respondents selected “I Do Not Trust Any Candidate Yet”, while 204 were undecided and 122 selected “Other Candidate.”

The poll’s distribution also showed that the national lead did not necessarily translate into dominance across every part of the country. While Tinubu led in three geopolitical zones, Obi had a commanding position in the South-East and South-South, while Atiku dominated the North-East.

The dataset was also heavily concentrated in a few locations, with Lagos and the FCT accounting for 54.44 per cent of all responses. The final dataset contained 56 diaspora responses, which were excluded from the six domestic regional tallies.

Meanwhile, Obi, the presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), has repeatedly maintained that he won the 2023 presidential election despite the legal outcome that confirmed Tinubu as President.

Special Adviser to Tinubu on Media and Public Communications, Sunday Dare, recently criticised Obi’s position, describing it as “political arrogance” and accusing him of living in what he called a political fantasy.

“Mr. Peter Obi is fat on ambition but drunk on political arrogance,” Dare said.

He added, “Peter Obi wallows freely in a political fantasy land. To still insist he won the presidential election after the country’s highest court, the Supreme Court, delivered a final judgment is clear hallucination.”

Obi had made the comments while speaking on Arise TV, where he said he would accept the outcome of the 2027 election if the process was free, fair and credible.

“If the election is free, fair and credible, I will because it’s an election. It’s the people that would say who they want to serve, and I will respect the will of the people; that’s democracy,” Obi said.

He, however, maintained his position on the 2023 election.

“I did, and I will maintain that as long as I live that I won the 2023 election. Those who conducted it know the records; they know why there was a glitch and what happened,” he said.