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Why another COVID-19 explosion may happen – NCDC

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The Director-General of the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), Dr. Chikwe Ihekweazu, has warned that the country may experience another COVID-19 explosion.

Speaking during a television programme in Abuja on Monday, Ihekweazu noted that if state government stop testing, the dreaded virus will keep spreading. He, however, urged state governors to keep ramping up testing.

He said that if the implementation of safety COVID-19 protocols and measures are ignored, the country risks another explosion of the virus.

He said: “The data is what it is. We are having fewer cases reported than we had in April, May and the numbers are what they are. The states where we are most comfortable with are the states like Lagos, the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Kano and Borno. This is because they are testing a lot and not finding as many as they used to find.

“A few months ago, we used to have a test positivity ratio of up to 20 per cent to 25 per cent in Lagos – that is 20 per cent of all the samples we collected were positive. Now, that figure is down to five per cent. So, we are happy with the progress made in Lagos.

“In some other states, they are not testing enough, because they are not finding cases. It becomes impossible for us to say whether that is a reflection that there are really no cases or it is just a reflection that they are not testing.

“We have been reaching out to states to let them know that the national curve that we show every day is really a reflection of several sub-national curves. Some states have reacted positively and have started testing more.

“A perfect example of that is Plateau State. Initially very slow, but now they have started testing more and have found more cases which is a good thing. Now, they know where they are. Many states, unfortunately, haven’t learnt from that and are not testing and finding enough. I’m worried that we might find an explosion in those states that will then affect the rest of the country again.

“Ultimately, the sample collection and mobilisation efforts within states have to be driven by states. Until they see the benefits of testing more in order to define for themselves where they are, we will be in this position of not having a full certainty of where we are in the trajectory of the outbreak in Nigeria.”

He added: “All of us are trying to avoid the lockdown not just in Nigeria but across the world. Countries are working very hard to find ways to avoid a lockdown because we have all seen what it can do to our economy. The impact of this outbreak on the Nigerian economy will be felt for years to come.

“So, we have to try to avoid that scenario again. Avoiding that scenario means moving away from almost a government-led response to where everyone takes a little bit more responsibility.

“As we move towards reopening our schools, there will be increased opportunities for transmission because students will come together. We know that we’re opening our air space, and have opened ourselves up to some increase in infection. Therefore, we carried out the very stringent mitigation measures – testing before and on arrival.

“The second wave is not inevitable but we can avoid it. It can’t be done by government lockdowns, but it can only be achieved in a sustainable way if we come together as a society.”

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One Comment

  1. I don’t believe you Sir. I believe the Nigerian is largely immune to minor infections like Covid 19. Anyway, thank God you said ‘may happen’. It would likely not happen. Even if it does, it will be the way to herd immunity. Thank you.

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